Bitcoin pushed past $65,000 over the weekend, then slid to as low as $63,250. The pullback comes as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics prepares to release July CPI data on August 12, a report that's historically moved crypto markets in both directions.
The weekend swing
Over the weekend, Bitcoin broke above $65,000 for the first time in weeks, only to give back the gains in a sharp pullback that touched $63,250. The move left traders guessing whether the rally has legs or if the CPI report will knock it back down.
What the CPI report could do
Most traders on Kalshi expect July CPI to come in above 3.3% year-over-year, with 15% seeing a chance of 3.4%. That's a hot number, and it's a key input for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Historically, Bitcoin has responded sharply to these releases: it jumped over 10% in the week following June's CPI and 7.5% after July's report when inflation came in lower than expected.
Analysts split on direction
Analyst Michael van de Poppe put it simply: "If CPI data comes in greatly tomorrow: BTC goes up." Others are more cautious. Gerla noted that each CPI report from August 2025 until now has been a precursor to heightened volatility, sometimes followed by double-digit price declines. Ali Martinez predicts one last drop below $57,500 before a rally to as high as $180,000 next year. On X, Ted said Bitcoin has a decent chance of pumping as long as it stays above $63,000, while Max Crypto claimed the asset has broken out of its 10-month downtrend and could be gearing up for an upswing. Poseidon envisions a push above $70,000 in August, then a renewed correction below $60,000 in late September.
The stakes for the Fed
The CPI report is a key input for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. A hotter-than-expected number could reinforce the case for higher rates for longer, which tends to pressure risk assets like crypto. A cooler print could give the Fed room to ease, a scenario that's historically been bullish for Bitcoin. Either way, the report is expected to cause volatility across crypto and financial markets.
The report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET. Until then, Bitcoin's ability to hold above $63,000 will be the line traders are watching.
