Solana dropped to $64.98 on Tuesday, pushing its relative strength index to 29.91 — a level traders consider deeply oversold. Despite the slide, large holders known as smart money have kept 77.9% of their positions in long contracts, signaling they expect a rebound. Technical indicators point to a potential recovery above $75 within the next two weeks.
The RSI reading and what it means
The relative strength index measures how fast prices are moving up or down. A reading below 30 is generally seen as oversold, meaning the asset could be due for a bounce. Solana's RSI at 29.91 is the lowest it has been in months. The last time it hit similar levels, the token rallied more than 15% over the following weeks.
Smart money positioning stays bullish
While retail traders often panic during sharp drops, smart money — institutions and experienced traders — has maintained a heavy long bias. Data shows that 77.9% of their open positions are betting on higher prices. That split suggests the recent selloff hasn't shaken confidence among those who typically have better timing and information.
Price target and timing
Based on the current setup, analysts point to a move back toward $75 within two weeks. That would represent a gain of roughly 15% from today's level. The forecast relies on the oversold RSI unwinding and smart money holding their longs. If selling pressure resumes, the recovery could take longer or fail entirely.
Risk factors to watch
A rebound isn't guaranteed. The broader crypto market remains volatile, and Solana has shown sensitivity to Bitcoin's direction. If Bitcoin breaks below key support, Solana could slide further despite the oversold reading. The smart money positions could also unwind quickly if market conditions worsen, adding to downside pressure.
For now, the data points to a bounce. The test will come over the next several trading sessions as buyers step in — or don't — at these levels.
