Solana (SOL) is flashing a bearish technical signal as a double top pattern takes shape on its price chart. The formation, which occurs when an asset hits a similar high twice and then stalls, has its neckline near $73. A break below that level could send the token down roughly 7% toward $67, according to chart analysis.
What the Chart Shows
The current double top pattern is forming on declining volume, a classic bearish confirmation. This mirrors a similar setup between mid-March and May 11 that led to a price drop of about 21%. However, the current pattern shows lighter exchange flows — from roughly 0.2 million SOL to 0.9 million SOL — compared to the spring pattern, which saw flows jump from about 3 million SOL to 5.4 million SOL. That suggests weaker distribution pressure this time around.
Key Levels to Watch
A daily close below $72 would confirm the double top pattern, triggering the projected decline toward $67. On the upside, a daily close above $81 and ideally $84 would invalidate the near-term bearish outlook. The current pattern is less symmetrical than the previous one, and the lighter exchange flows imply that any breakdown may be shallower than the 21% drop seen earlier this year.
Weaker Distribution This Time
The exchange net position change during the current pattern shows much lighter flows compared to the spring. In the earlier pattern, net flows ranged from about 3 million SOL to 5.4 million SOL, indicating stronger selling pressure. Now, the range is only 0.2 million to 0.9 million SOL, suggesting that fewer tokens are moving onto exchanges for potential sale. This could mean that if a breakdown occurs, it might not be as severe.
Long-Term Holders Trim Positions
The HODL Waves metric, which tracks how long coins have been held, shows that 1-2 year holders have been reducing their positions. That cohort declined from roughly 15.7% of the supply in mid-July to about 15.17% by July 28. While the drop is small, it indicates that some long-term investors are taking profits or cutting exposure ahead of the potential breakdown.
Traders will be watching for a daily close below $72 to confirm the pattern, or a move above $81 to invalidate it. Until then, the double top remains a risk, but the lighter flows offer a note of caution against expecting a repeat of the spring's 21% decline.
