Bitcoin's seven-session spot ETF inflow streak has pulled in $2.57 billion since Aug. 17. That momentum now runs straight into the week's most closely watched U.S. macro print. At 8:30 a.m. ET on Aug. 26, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases July personal income and outlays, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, and July advance durable-goods orders. Inside that package is the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, and it's the one crypto traders have been waiting on.
Bitcoin trades near $78,508, down about 2% over the last 24 hours but still up roughly 22.8% over the past seven days. The question for Wednesday is simple: does the ETF bid hold up if inflation runs hot?
The streak, by the numbers
The inflow run from Aug. 17 through Aug. 25 totaled $2.5697 billion in net spot ETF inflows. That's a heavy week by any standard. The final day alone put up $314.3 million, and BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $284.4 million of that. In percentage terms, IBIT was roughly 90.5% of the day's inflows. The streak is real, but it's also narrowing into one product.
What the Cleveland Fed nowcast sees
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's nowcast for July PCE sits at 0.15% month-over-month and 3.65% year-over-year. Core PCE runs warmer: 0.25% monthly and 3.29% annually. Those numbers aren't exactly screaming disinflation. If the actual print comes in near those estimates, the 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar become the immediate tell. On Aug. 25, the 10-year was at 4.64%, with overnight quotes near 4.65%. The U.S. Dollar Index was near 99.00, slightly above its prior close.
The real test is in the reaction
The interesting part isn't the print itself; it's what Bitcoin does after it. If BTC holds its pre-release level despite hotter inflation or stronger growth, that's consistent with ETF demand offsetting the macro pressure. A sharp decline would suggest the streak was a support, not an immunity. The reaction window is short. Data hits at 8:30, and by mid-morning the market will have already picked a side.
