Toncoin's price has jumped 25% in recent trading, but a key technical indicator is flashing a warning sign. The Relative Strength Index now sits at 93 — deep in overbought territory — and data suggests a 65% chance of a pullback before any further rally.
Why the RSI reading matters
The Relative Strength Index measures how fast prices are moving. Readings above 70 typically signal an asset is overbought. At 93, Toncoin is far past that threshold, meaning buying pressure has been extreme. Historically, such levels often precede a short-term decline as traders take profits or momentum fades. The 65% probability of a correction, based on current market patterns, reinforces that view.
What a correction could look like
If Toncoin does reverse, analysts point to $2.26 as the first major support level. That represents a drop of roughly 10-15% from current prices, depending on where the coin trades when the pullback begins. The level aligns with previous consolidation zones and could attract buyers looking for a discount. A correction to that area would also reset the RSI, giving the market room to breathe before the next move.
The path to $3.34
Should a correction play out and support hold, the next target is $3.34 resistance. That level is about 20% above current prices and marks a zone where sellers previously stepped in. The timeline for such a breakout attempt is tight: traders expect it within seven days of the correction bottoming. If $3.34 breaks, it would represent a new local high for Toncoin, which has been range-bound in recent months.
For now, the market is watching whether the overbought signal triggers selling or if bullish momentum can push through without a pause. The next few trading sessions will be key — a close below $2.60 could accelerate the drop, while holding above $2.80 might keep the breakout scenario alive.
