Two crypto analysts are sounding warnings on Bitcoin this week, each pointing to chart patterns that suggest a significant price decline before a potential late-year recovery. Merlijn the Trader cites a recurring midterm pattern where Bitcoin historically drops about 15% on average after a Q2 rally, with a bottom forming in November or December. Separately, analyst Chiefy calls a confirmed 'Head & Shoulders breakdown' from current levels around $77,000, targeting a drop to $37,000.
The midterm pattern Merlijn is watching
Merlijn the Trader looked at past midterm years — 2018 and 2022 — and found a repeatable sequence. In 2018, Bitcoin fell 25% in January, rallied 33% through Q2, then dropped 19% in May before bottoming in December. In 2022, a 17% Q1 drop was followed by a 5% March recovery, then a 16% April decline and a November bottom.
This cycle appears to be following a similar script. Bitcoin crashed 23% in Q1 2026, then rallied 14% from March into April. But momentum faded in May. Merlijn now predicts a midterm-year bottom between November and December 2026. He didn't specify a price target.
Chiefy's head & shoulders call
Chiefy goes a step further. He says a 'Head & Shoulders breakdown' has been confirmed on the Bitcoin chart. From the current $77,000 level, that pattern would imply a crash to $37,000 — a drop of more than 50%.
Head & shoulders is a well-known reversal pattern. A confirmed breakdown below the neckline typically signals the end of an uptrend. If Chiefy's right, the pain would come fast.
The two predictions aren't mutually exclusive. A sharp decline to $37,000 could happen well before the late-year bottom Merlijn expects. But neither analyst is calling for a quick recovery.
Bitcoin has been range-bound for weeks, and the technicals are starting to look fragile. Whether either forecast plays out depends on the next few months of price action. The market's watching.
