Bitcoin is trading just above $81,000, and VanEck's head of digital asset research, Matthew Siegel, isn't backing down from his big call. He reiterated this week that Bitcoin could hit $1 million within the next five years — by 2031. The catalyst? The first central bank has started buying Bitcoin for its reserves, a move Siegel calls a 'mega trend.'
Central bank buying is here
Siegel didn't name the central bank, but the fact that any sovereign reserve manager is now allocating to Bitcoin marks a turning point. He compared the cryptocurrency's staying power to the video game industry: 'people don't quit Bitcoin.' The logic is that once a central bank starts, others may follow — creating a persistent demand floor that the market hasn't seen before.
Why short covering, not froth
Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq just hit a five-year high, which usually raises eyebrows about speculative excess. But Siegel points to an absence of froth in derivatives. The rally, he argues, is driven by short covering rather than overexuberance. That's a healthier setup — prices aren't being pumped by leveraged retail bets. The implication: there's room to run without an immediate blow-off top.
The long shot: $2.9M and beyond
VanEck's longer-term model projects Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050. That estimate rests on Bitcoin becoming a medium of exchange and a reserve asset for central banks. Siegel predicts Bitcoin will settle between 5% and 10% of global international trade by 2050, plus 5% of domestic trade transactions. If Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of GDP under one scenario, the model spits out $53.4 million per coin. That's the kind of number that sounds absurd today — but Siegel's thesis is that adoption is still in the early innings.
The question nobody can answer yet: how quickly will other central banks follow the first mover? If they don't, the $2.9M path gets a lot steeper.
