Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo estimates there's a 20% to 40% chance that authorities will recover at least part of the bitcoin stolen through the Coldcard vulnerability. The projection, shared this week, draws on a track record of large-scale crypto recoveries that have returned billions of dollars to victims. Security leaders are now urging those affected to preserve evidence that could aid future recovery efforts.
Why Woo sees a path to recovery
Woo's range reflects both the difficulty of tracing stolen funds and the growing capability of blockchain forensics. He pointed to past recoveries spanning billions of dollars — a track record that gives some hope, even if the odds aren't great. The key is that authorities have managed to claw back significant sums in previous high-profile hacks, so there's precedent.
What victims should do now
Security experts are advising anyone who lost funds in the Coldcard exploit to preserve all relevant evidence. That means transaction IDs, wallet addresses, timestamps, and any communication with the exchange or wallet provider. The sooner evidence is secured, the better the chances of assisting law enforcement. Don't delete anything, even if it seems minor.
The Coldcard vulnerability in context
The vulnerability itself was disclosed earlier this year, leading to a wave of thefts. While the exact amount stolen hasn't been confirmed, the incident rattled the hardware wallet community. Coldcard has since released a patch, but the stolen funds remain largely untraced. The timing isn't great — hardware wallets are supposed to be the gold standard for security.
The next concrete step is likely a coordinated effort between exchanges and blockchain analytics firms to track the movement of the stolen coins. Whether that leads to a recovery — and how much — remains an open question. Woo's estimate gives a measured sense of possibility, but it's far from a sure thing.
