Market maker Wintermute called Ethereum the 'wrong asset for this macro' after ETH lost 10.2% last week, sending the ETH/BTC ratio to its lowest level since July 2025. The blunt assessment came as spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $255 million in outflows — the largest weekly withdrawal since late January — and total Ether reserves on exchanges swelled. But beneath the bearish surface, some big holders are quietly accumulating.
The macro call
Wintermute didn't mince words. In a note shared with clients, the firm argued that Ethereum's risk profile doesn't match the current macroeconomic environment. ETH's slide accelerated last week, and the ETH/BTC ratio collapsed to 0.0275. That's the weakest showing against Bitcoin in nearly a year. The timing isn't great: spot Bitcoin ETFs also registered net outflows in the same period, suggesting broad risk-off sentiment across crypto.
ETF outflows and exchange supply
Spot Ethereum ETFs bled $255 million last week, the biggest weekly drain since late January. Meanwhile, ETH reserves on Binance climbed from 3.4 million to nearly 3.8 million ETH throughout May. Across all exchanges, total Ether reserves rose from 14.5 million to 14.94 million over the same stretch. More coins sitting on exchanges usually means more selling pressure — or at least that traders are positioning to offload.
Whales vs. mid-tier holders
Not everyone is selling. Addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH increased their combined stack from 6.15 million to 6.54 million between May 1 and May 20 — that's roughly 390,000 ETH accumulated in three weeks. But mid-tier wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH went the other way, cutting their holdings from 27.77 million to 27.27 million over the same period. It's a split: the biggest players are buying the dip, while the next tier down is taking chips off the table.
Bearish positioning and a potential squeeze
The weekly Taker Buy Sell Ratio on Binance fell to 0.91, the lowest since September 2023. That means aggressive selling is dominating spot order flow. Analyst Darkfost noted that ETH is trading inside a broad range between roughly $1,500 and $4,000 and has corrected about 9% in the past seven days. But he cautioned that bearish positioning may have become too one-sided, which could set the stage for a short squeeze. Macro data and Federal Reserve commentary in the coming weeks could act as the trigger for the next move, one way or the other.
