XRP is trading around $1.08, down 4% on the week and roughly 65% lower than a year ago. The token is flashing mixed signals as on-chain data and technical analysis point in opposite directions.
Bearish setup on the charts
Analyst Hamza warns that XRP is breaking down from a symmetrical triangle, a pattern that often precedes further losses. His target sits at $0.836 — a drop of more than 20% from current levels. He says a rise to $1.16 would invalidate the bearish setup. Another analyst, Crypto Spaces, predicts a more modest decline to $1.02.
Adding to the bearish case: the number of XRP tokens stored on Binance hit a nearly three-week high of approximately 2.62 billion. A rising exchange balance typically signals that holders are preparing to sell, which could add downward pressure.
Oversold, but direction unclear
Carl Hawley, a trader, notes that XRP is the most oversold it has been since the COVID crash in 2020. But he stops short of calling a bottom, saying he cannot predict the direction of the next move. Oversold conditions can lead to a bounce — or they can persist as prices keep falling.
Bulls point to history and compression
Not everyone is bearish. Analyst MARMOT claims XRP is repeating a pattern from 2017 that preceded a 60,000% explosion, setting a target of $13. That call is extreme, but it reflects a persistent belief among some traders that XRP's long-term structure remains intact.
Celal Kucuker sees a different kind of setup: price compression, exhausted sellers, and asymmetric risk. He suggests a potential breakout to $10. Meanwhile, xrpl_Adam has floated the idea that XRP could become a $100 trillion asset in the future — a figure that would require a market cap many times the entire crypto space, which currently sits at around $3 trillion.
What to watch
The immediate question is whether XRP can hold above the triangle's lower boundary. A close below $1.00 would likely accelerate selling toward Hamza's $0.836 target. On the upside, reclaiming $1.16 would flip the script and put the bulls back in control. With Binance supply rising and the broader market treading water, the next few days could set the tone for XRP's August.
