Technical analyst ChartNerd has pinpointed the current XRP bear market as softer than previous downturns, projecting a cycle bottom by the end of 2026. XRP has dropped roughly 70% from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65, now trading near $1.15 after hitting a 19-month low of $1.05 earlier this month. The analyst sees prices eventually climbing to $8, $13, and $27 based on Fibonacci extensions following an accumulation phase.
The 350-day slide
Today marks about 350 days since XRP topped out in July 2025. That's a long stretch, but ChartNerd notes it's shorter than historical bear markets — past cycles have run 400 to 790 days with drawdowns of 85% to 90%. The current 70% decline, while painful, fits a milder pattern. XRP's weekly loss stands at 12%, and the monthly drop is 19%. The recent dip to $1.05 was the lowest since early 2025, though it's bounced back to $1.20 briefly before settling around $1.15.
What ChartNerd sees next
ChartNerd argues the token is in a late-stage bear phase, with a cycle bottom likely by the end of this year. After that, an accumulation period would set up the next leg higher. The price targets — $8, $13, $27 — come from Fibonacci extension analysis, a tool often used to estimate upside after a major low. That's a long way from today's levels, but the analyst says the structure looks similar to past bottoms that preceded big runs.
ETF flows tell a different story
While XRP's spot price has been sliding, institutional money is trickling in the opposite direction. Spot XRP ETFs pulled in $2.62 million in net inflows last week. That's a tiny number compared to the $1.7 billion that flowed out of Bitcoin ETFs and the $173 million that left Ethereum ETFs over the same period. It doesn't signal a flood of demand, but it's notable that XRP funds aren't bleeding the way the bigger names are.
The 2014 exception
Not every XRP bear market ends cleanly. The 2014 cycle saw a 96% crash over 210 days — far steeper and shorter than the current one. That token then took more than 1,200 days to reclaim its previous high, with a big wick low in late 2017 before recovery. ChartNerd acknowledges that outlier, but argues the current drawdown is tamer and more in line with typical cycles. The question is whether a milder decline really means a quicker turnaround — or if XRP could still linger in the doldrums for years.
For now, all eyes are on the end of 2026. If ChartNerd is right, that's when the bottom forms and the next accumulation phase begins.
