XRP is down about 2% on the day but has bounced roughly 4% off its August low, helped by a surge in large-holder accumulation and a return of spot ETF inflows. The token is trading at a small premium on Korean exchanges, where order books show bids outweighing asks by nearly two to one. Still, the move remains inside a falling channel that has capped every rally since mid-May, and a confirmed reversal requires a daily close above $1.09.
Korean premium and order book imbalance
On Upbit, XRP ranks third among 275 Korean won markets by 24-hour volume, trailing only Tether and Bitcoin. Combined bids on Upbit and Bithumb outweigh asks by roughly two to one within 1% of market price — a gap of about 34%. Korea is paying a small premium to the global price on Bybit, near the top of its recent seven-day range. That kind of local demand often precedes short-term momentum, but it hasn't yet pushed XRP out of its broader downtrend.
Whale accumulation or wallet relabeling?
The share of XRP held by wallets with 100 million to 1 billion tokens jumped from 10.66% to 11.98% around August 1. That's a notable shift, but the data doesn't distinguish between new buying and wallet relabeling — exchanges or custodians moving funds between addresses can produce the same signal. The timing, however, lines up with the bounce and the ETF inflow improvement, making it worth watching.
ETF inflows turn positive
XRP spot ETF inflows reached $14.86 million in the week ending July 31, the strongest in four weeks. That's a sharp reversal from the prior week's $7.18 million outflow. While the absolute number is modest, the direction change suggests institutional appetite may be returning after a dry spell.
Technical picture: still in a falling channel
The Relative Strength Index shows a bullish divergence — price made a lower low into August while momentum made a higher low. Bybit perpetual funding sits near +0.006%, mildly positive and not overheated. But the bounce is not a confirmed reversal. XRP needs a daily close above $1.09 to break the falling channel that has capped every rally since May 14. It must also reclaim $1.08, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, to keep the bounce alive. Below that, $1.03 and $0.95 are the next supports. Until XRP clears $1.09 on a daily close, the move remains a bounce inside a downtrend — not a breakout.
