XRP dropped to $1.25 this week, its weakest level since September 16, after trading as high as $1.66 less than a month ago. The slide came alongside a broader crypto market decline that analysts have tied to rising US inflation, weakness in other markets, and general economic uncertainty. What stands out is the activity underneath the price: XRP Ledger transaction volume jumped to almost $50 billion, up from below $1 billion in the days before, according to Santiment data cited by analyst Ali Martinez.
The volume spike under the selloff
A 50-fold jump in on-chain volume while the price falls is the kind of split that gets traders arguing. It could be capitulation — holders moving coins in a hurry — or it could be fresh positioning. The Santiment figures don't settle that on their own, and Martinez didn't claim they did. What he did say is that $1.25 could be the bottom for XRP, with a possible rally back toward $2.00 from here.
That's a modest target compared with some of the calls circulating. EGRAG CRYPTO laid out a cycle top of $7 to $9 for XRP, which would sit well above the token's 2025 all-time high of $3.65. Vincent Van Code took a similar line, describing the recent selloff as a shakeout designed to push out weak hands, and predicting all-time highs across the market in the coming weeks.
Calls for new highs while price sits near lows
Those forecasts are worth putting in context. XRP is trading near a level it last touched a month ago, and the factors behind the drop — inflation, softer markets elsewhere, economic uncertainty — aren't the sort of thing that resolves in a week. Predicting all-time highs in the coming weeks is a confident bet against that backdrop. It's also not a rare one in crypto; the calls are loudest when the chart looks worst.
The $1.25 level matters because it's the nearest thing to a floor the market has set recently. If it holds, Martinez's $2.00 target becomes the next thing to watch. If it doesn't, the September 16 low stops being a reference point and becomes a memory.
What traders are watching now
The immediate question is whether the volume that showed up during the drop keeps coming. Nearly $50 billion in ledger activity is real movement, but the direction of that flow isn't clear from the Santiment figure alone. A second question is whether the macro pressure eases. Rising inflation and softness in other markets have been the stated drivers of the decline, and neither is under crypto's control.
For now, XRP holders are left with a token near its recent low and a queue of analysts calling a bottom. The price will settle the argument. Martinez's $1.25 call and the $7-to-$9 cycle-top target from EGRAG CRYPTO can't both be right in the near term, and the next few weeks of ledger activity should show which side is doing the buying.
