XRP failed to hold the $1 mark on Wednesday, trading at $0.998, down 0.4% on the day. Short positioning against the token is building on Binance, with open interest in XRP perpetuals climbing 28.6% from $181 million on August 3 to $232.7 million on August 17 — the highest level since June 2026.
Short Interest Builds on Binance
The jump in open interest comes after a quiet July. Binance XRP open interest hit a three-month low that month, with a seven-day change of negative $40 million on July 29. By mid-August, that flipped to positive $38.9 million, showing money flowing back into positions.
The positioning skew is clearly bearish. Binance perpetual Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) fell to negative $463.2 million, meaning sellers are aggressively executing while positions expand. Across all centralized exchanges, estimated spot CVD swung from about positive $153 million on August 3 to negative $231.8 million — a shift of nearly $385 million toward net selling.
Whale Inflows Drop, Netflows Stay Positive
Whale activity tells a different part of the story. Binance whale inflows dropped to $61 million on a three-month average, the lowest level since 2021. That's a sharp decline from $456 million in January 2025 and $355 million in October. Big holders aren't moving tokens in at the pace they used to.
Still, netflows on Binance remain positive at roughly $18.8 million. Deposits still outweigh withdrawals, even as whale inflows shrink. That suggests retail or smaller traders are stepping in while the big players sit on the sidelines.
On-Chain Activity Paints a Different Picture
Sentiment has turned decidedly bearish. Santiment recorded crowd commentary at a three-month bearish peak across X, Reddit, and Telegram. But on-chain activity moved the opposite direction. The network saw 49,929 active addresses in a single 24-hour span, the highest in over two months.
Analyst Darkfost noted a market-wide pattern of declining inflows and volumes, pointing to sell-side exhaustion while demand hasn't picked up. Santiment flagged that high on-chain activity alongside extreme fear could be a counter-signal, suggesting potential for a discounted entry narrative if XRP holds its structure.
The question now is whether XRP can defend the $1 level as short interest builds and on-chain activity hints at a possible turning point.
