The average XRP trader active over the past month is sitting on a loss of roughly 47%, according to the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. That figure has dropped to its lowest point since December 2020, data from Santiment shows. The slump comes as XRP trades near $1.34, down from a recent high of $1.54, and liquidity on Binance has thinned to levels not seen in more than four years.
Why the MVRV reading matters
The MVRV ratio compares XRP's current market price to the average price at which coins last moved. A negative reading means the typical short-term holder is underwater. Santiment notes that readings this low have historically drifted back toward 0%, signaling an extreme undervaluation zone. Past cycles have seen similar conditions precede strong price rebounds — but the indicator alone doesn't guarantee a turnaround, the firm cautions.
For now, the data points to a market where most recent buyers are nursing losses. Whether that draws in bargain hunters or triggers further selling depends on broader sentiment and trading activity.
Liquidity thins to 2020 levels
XRP's 30-day liquidity index on Binance has fallen to about 0.043, the weakest reading since January 2020. For context, that same index climbed above three during stronger trading stretches between 2022 and 2024, even crossing four at times. Low liquidity makes the market more sensitive to sudden price moves, as large orders can sway prices more sharply than in a deeper book.
The drop in liquidity coincides with a steep decline in whale activity. Transactions worth over $1 million dropped 57% over a nine-day stretch, suggesting big players are stepping back. That pullback removes a source of both buying pressure and potential volatility, but it also means less resistance on the way up if demand returns.
Key levels to watch
Analyst CasiTrades pointed out that XRP has spent four months struggling to clear the $1.65 resistance level. A reclaim and hold above that price would be the first clear sign of a stronger recovery, the analyst said. On the downside, key support levels sit at $1.10 and $0.87 if selling pressure continues.
XRP's recent pullback from $1.54 shows the market hasn't found a clear direction. The combination of negative MVRV, low liquidity, and fading whale interest leaves the token in a fragile spot. A breakout above $1.65 would shift the narrative, but for now traders are watching whether the supports hold.
