XRP traders are sitting on average unrealized losses of roughly 47% over the past 30 days, according to on-chain data. The token's 30-day MVRV ratio — a key metric comparing market value to realized value — has dropped to its lowest point since December 2020, signaling that most buyers who got in during the recent rally are now underwater.
Why the losses are piling up
XRP surged in late 2024 and early 2025, driven by favorable regulatory shifts, the launch of U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds, and Ripple's evolving corporate profile. But the rally has reversed sharply. Deeply negative MVRV readings often point to trader exhaustion and reduced risk of forced selling, which can sometimes precede a bottom — though that's far from guaranteed.
Santiment's positive-to-negative commentary ratio for XRP now sits at roughly 1.1 bullish remarks for every bearish one, suggesting the speculative fervor that fueled the earlier climb has largely evaporated. The crowd is no longer betting heavily on a quick rebound.
Open interest surges alongside short selling
Despite the losses, derivatives activity has picked up. On May 22, open interest in XRP futures expanded significantly: Binance added 25.6 million XRP, Bybit added 54 million XRP, with a combined notional value of about $107 million at a price near $1.35. Two days later, on May 26, open interest grew again — Binance added 28.9 million XRP and Bybit added 42.9 million XRP, representing roughly $96 million in new speculative positioning at an average price of $1.34.
Those were the biggest one-day open interest jumps since mid-March 2025. But the positioning is heavily skewed to the short side. The cumulative volume delta for Binance perpetual futures has plunged to a record negative reading of approximately -$641.9 million, indicating aggressive short selling by traders betting the price will fall further.
ETF inflows offer a counterweight
While futures markets look bearish, spot markets tell a different story. Estimated spot cumulative volume delta across all centralized exchanges has increased to roughly $397.3 million, surpassing the $380 million threshold set in late April. That suggests net buying pressure in the actual spot market.
U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs are on track for their strongest monthly performance in 2025, drawing about $117 million in recent inflows and extending a positive streak to 13 consecutive trading sessions. Cumulative ETF inflows have now exceeded $1.12 billion.
ETF inflows provide a regulated anchor for XRP, but they can't entirely offset the pressure from the futures market. The divergence between spot buying and futures shorting leaves the token in an unusual tug-of-war — one that could resolve only when one side exhausts itself.
The next major test will come when monthly ETF flow data is published and when open interest data for early June is released, which will show whether the short buildup is accelerating or beginning to unwind.
