Polymarket bettors are almost certain Lionel Messi will take home the Golden Ball award, with odds hitting 90.95% on the prediction market. The market has drawn $11.1 million in trading volume, making it one of the platform's most active soccer contracts of the tournament.
Why the odds are so high
The Argentine captain has been the driving force behind his team's run to the final. His performances have consistently earned man-of-the-match honors, and the betting market reflects a near-consensus that voters will award him the tournament's best player prize. The Golden Ball is voted on by journalists covering the competition, and Messi's narrative—leading a side that many thought was past its prime—has been a dominant story line.
But the odds don't tell the whole story of Argentina's progress. While Messi has been the face of the team, it was Lautaro Martinez who provided the defining moment of the semifinal. The striker scored a stoppage-time header against England to send Argentina to the final with Spain. That goal flipped a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 win, keeping Argentina's title hopes alive.
Martinez emerges as a late-tournament factor
Martinez had been a secondary option earlier in the tournament, but his clutch header has reshaped the conversation around Argentina's attack. The goal came from a set piece—a corner kick that Martinez rose to meet, powering it past the England goalkeeper. The play was a reminder that Argentina isn't just a one-player team.
Still, the Polymarket numbers suggest traders see the Golden Ball as a foregone conclusion. The $11.1 million wagered on the market is more than double the volume on the next most popular player award market. The only other player with significant odds is Spain's midfielder, but he sits at just 4.2%.
The final against Spain
Argentina will face Spain in the championship match. Spain has been the tournament's most consistent team, but Argentina's momentum—buoyed by Martinez's last-minute heroics and Messi's steady brilliance—makes them a formidable opponent. The Golden Ball winner will be announced after the final, and the front-runner's odds have only climbed since the semifinal.
If Argentina wins the title, Messi's Golden Ball chances might become a certainty. If they lose, voters could still reward him for individual excellence. Either way, Polymarket has already priced in a near-certain outcome.
The final kicks off in three days. By then, the $11.1 million market will have settled, and the world will know if the bettors were right.
