The American Gaming Association released its Q1 2026 Gaming Industry Outlook on May 7, and the headline numbers suggest a confident industry. But dig into the details, and concerns about prediction markets start to emerge. The survey, run by Oxford Economics, polled 26 senior gaming executives between March 23 and April 8. At the same time, the association's own lobbying ranks have been shifting — an exodus over the past six months that, according to a recent article, has reshaped the US gambling lobbying landscape.
Confidence on the surface, worries underneath
The survey's top-line findings point to optimism. Executives reported solid expectations for revenue and growth in the coming quarters. Yet the deeper responses reveal a specific anxiety: prediction markets. These platforms — where users bet on outcomes like elections or sports events — are increasingly seen as a competitive threat. The survey's authors note that while the industry feels strong, the rise of prediction markets is a concern that could reshape regulatory priorities.
The AGA’s shifting lobbying operation
The article titled “Six Months in, the AGA Exodus Has Reshaped US Gambling’s Lobbying Landscape” details how the association has lost several high-profile staffers and member companies. Those departures have changed the organization’s approach to Capitol Hill and statehouses. The timing of the survey — coming just after those exits — means the industry’s collective voice is still finding its footing. Some executives privately wonder whether the AGA can still effectively push for favorable rules on issues like sports betting expansion and online gambling.
Prediction markets as a lobbying flashpoint
The concern over prediction markets isn't just about competition — it’s about regulation. These platforms often operate in a gray area, not clearly covered by federal gambling laws. The AGA has historically pushed for clear rules that treat prediction markets as illegal gambling. But with a reshuffled lobbying team, the industry’s ability to make that case may be weaker. The survey’s data suggests executives are watching this closely. They see prediction markets as a direct threat to their bottom line, especially as more states consider legalizing sports betting and iGaming.
The Oxford Economics survey asked executives about their top regulatory priorities. While not all responses are public, the pattern is clear: prediction markets rank high. That puts pressure on the AGA’s new lobbying team to deliver results.
What’s next for the industry
The May 7 publication of the outlook comes as the AGA’s internal changes continue to unfold. No major legislation targeting prediction markets is currently moving in Congress, but state-level battles are brewing. The industry now waits to see how the reshaped AGA will handle those fights — and whether the confidence shown in the survey will hold up once those battles begin.
