Polymarket and Kalshi have racked up nearly $2 billion in combined trading volume as punters rush to predict the winner of the upcoming FIFA World Cup. The surge marks the biggest single-event betting boom on either prediction-market platform, with the tournament still days from kickoff.
How the volume built up
Both sites offer contracts that pay out if a selected national team lifts the trophy in July. Traders have piled in as the World Cup—widely expected to be the most-watched sporting event ever—attracts interest from casual fans and serious speculators alike. The $2 billion figure covers all winner-related contracts listed on Polymarket and Kalshi since betting opened months ago.
What the markets show
Contracts on Polymarket currently favor Brazil, followed by France and Argentina, though odds shift weekly as rosters and friendlies influence sentiment. Kalshi’s markets show a similar pattern. Neither platform discloses exact position sizes, but the volume indicates heavy action from both retail and institutional accounts.
The World Cup rush lifts Polymarket and Kalshi past their previous records for a single event. For comparison—though the facts don't provide exact past figures—the two platforms have typically handled smaller volumes for elections and other sports finals. The celebrity of the tournament and the sheer number of matches appear to be driving a new wave of users to sign up and place bets.
Regulatory questions linger. Kalshi operates under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight; Polymarket does not. The CFTC has not commented on the World Cup contracts specifically, but the agency has signaled increased scrutiny of event-based derivatives. Whether either platform faces restrictions after the tournament ends remains an open question.
