At least 11 people were killed in Russian attacks on Ukraine, while Ukrainian strikes on Russia left at least six dead, officials reported. The latest casualties come as a prediction market gives a 15% probability that Russian forces will enter the city of Sloviansk by the end of 2026.
Casualties Mount on Both Sides
The attacks hit residential areas and infrastructure, though specific locations were not immediately disclosed. The death tolls are preliminary, and rescue operations continue in some areas. The strikes mark another bloody day in the ongoing war, now in its third year.
Sloviansk in the Crosshairs
The 15% figure comes from a prediction market that tracks the likelihood of various geopolitical events. The odds suggest traders see a low but not negligible chance of a Russian push into Sloviansk within the next two years. Sloviansk, a city in eastern Ukraine, has been a focal point of fighting earlier in the conflict but has not seen major ground combat recently.
The market's probability has fluctuated in recent months as battlefield conditions change. A 15% chance implies that most traders expect the front lines to remain largely static, but a minority anticipate a renewed offensive.
For now, the 15% probability stands as a measure of uncertainty around Sloviansk's fate. The next major shift in the odds will likely come with a change in the military situation on the ground.
