Nearly 50 drones targeted Russia's Moscow region overnight, igniting fires at an oil depot in Noginsk and a Wildberries logistics site in Elektrostal. The attacks come as betting on the prediction market Polymarket shows a 19% chance that Vladimir Putin will leave office by June 2027, with $17.8 million wagered on that outcome.
The overnight drone barrage
Russian officials reported that about 50 drones struck the Moscow region in a single wave. Fires broke out at an oil depot in Noginsk, a town east of the capital, and at a Wildberries logistics center in Elektrostal. Wildberries is one of Russia's largest online retailers. No casualties were immediately reported, but the attacks mark one of the largest drone incursions near Moscow since the war in Ukraine began.
What the Polymarket numbers show
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, now lists a 19% probability that Putin will no longer be president of Russia by June 2027. That's up from lower levels earlier this year. The total volume of bets on the contract has reached $17.8 million, indicating significant trader interest. The contract specifies “exit” as leaving office for any reason — resignation, removal, death, or other causes. No single event has been cited as the trigger for the jump, but the drone attacks have intensified speculation about instability.
Why the odds matter
Prediction markets have become a popular tool for gauging political risk, though they are not always accurate. The Polymarket contract on Putin's tenure has been active for months, and the recent spike suggests some bettors see a growing chance of a change in leadership before mid-2027. The drone strikes, while not directly linked to the Kremlin's internal politics, add to a narrative of vulnerability. Russia has faced repeated drone attacks on its territory, and the scale of this latest assault could fuel questions about the government's ability to protect key infrastructure.
Neither the Kremlin nor Polymarket has commented on the coincidence of the two events. The drone attacks themselves are still under investigation by Russian authorities.
