Iran told Washington during talks in Switzerland that it will keep running the Strait of Hormuz, and warned conditions there won't return to how they were before the war. The statement comes as betting markets put the odds at better than three in four that the waterway stays disrupted.
What Tehran Said After the Meeting
Iranian officials said they'd continue to administer the strategic chokepoint, where roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes. They made clear the pre-war status quo is off the table — meaning tanker traffic won't simply go back to normal. The talks with the U.S. in Switzerland ended without any sign of a breakthrough on the issue.
Prediction Markets See Disruption Lingering
Polymarket, the decentralized betting platform, now prices a 75.5% probability that the Strait of Hormuz remains in an abnormal state. That's a strong bet from traders that the standoff won't ease soon. The figure reflects market expectations that Iran's stance will keep shipping lanes unpredictable.
What's at Stake for Global Oil Flows
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage between Iran and Oman, vital for crude exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar. Any persistent disruption could tighten global supplies and push up prices. Iran's latest position suggests it's prepared to keep pressure on the waterway as a bargaining chip.
Neither side has announced another round of talks. For now, the Strait remains in a state that the world's oil traders are betting won't fix itself anytime soon.
