Iran has directed the Houthi movement in Yemen to shut down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the United States launches military strikes, according to information available. The order, if carried out, would threaten one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, with the potential to disrupt global trade, push up energy costs, and rattle financial markets.
A Strategic Chokepoint
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a narrow passage that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Roughly 10% of global seaborne oil passes through it, along with a significant share of container shipping between Asia and Europe. A closure would effectively bottle up vessels in the Red Sea, forcing them to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope — a detour that adds weeks to transit times and millions in fuel costs.
That risk is not theoretical. The strait has been a flashpoint before, with Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in recent years. But a coordinated block, ordered by Iran, would represent a far more direct and deliberate disruption.
The Houthi Role in the Plan
Iran has long supplied the Houthis with weapons, training, and intelligence. The instruction to close the strait in the event of US strikes ties the group's actions directly to Tehran's strategic calculus. The Houthis, who control large parts of Yemen's coastline, have the ability to target ships with missiles, drones, and naval mines. A full closure would require sustained military action, but the threat alone is enough to affect shipping insurance rates and rerouting decisions.
The US has not publicly confirmed any imminent strikes, but the instruction suggests that Iran expects a military response to its own actions or those of its proxies. The Houthis have not commented on the directive.
Economic Ripple Effects
A closure of the Bab el-Mandeb would hit global trade immediately. Oil prices would likely spike as tankers avoid the route, adding to inflationary pressures. Energy costs for consumers in Europe and Asia, already high, could climb further. Financial markets would face a new layer of uncertainty, with investors pricing in the risk of a prolonged disruption.
Insurance premiums for ships transiting the region have already risen in recent years due to Houthi attacks. A deliberate closure would push those costs even higher, potentially making some routes uneconomical. The impact would not be limited to oil: container ships carrying electronics, food, and manufactured goods would also be affected.
An Unresolved Military Calculus
It remains unclear whether the US will strike, and if so, whether the Houthis will follow through on the order. The Biden administration has conducted airstrikes against Houthi targets in the past, but those did not stop the group's attacks on shipping. A broader campaign aimed at Iran's proxies might trigger the very closure Tehran has instructed.
For now, the order sits as a conditional threat — one that ties the fate of a global trade artery to the next move in a long-running conflict. The next steps depend on decisions made in Washington, Tehran, and Sanaa.
