The prediction market Polymarket now puts a 98.7% probability on the Strait of Hormuz not returning to normal shipping traffic by July 31. The figure comes as reports indicate Jerusalem is preparing for potential military involvement against Iran, and as the United States weighs its next steps. Fears of a broader escalation around the strategic waterway are mounting.
What the prediction market shows
Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, aggregates user wagers on real-world outcomes. Its current odds for the Hormuz question reflect near-certainty that the disruption will persist through the end of July. The market does not specify what form the disruption takes — whether from military action, diplomatic standoffs, or other causes — but the probability has climbed steadily in recent weeks.
Military preparations in Jerusalem
A report indicates that Israeli authorities are readying for possible military operations against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes, has long been a flashpoint in the Iran-Israel shadow war. Any direct Israeli strike could threaten the waterway's safety, though the report does not detail specific plans or timelines.
Washington's calculus
The United States is weighing its next steps. The Biden administration has maintained a policy of deterrence while avoiding direct confrontation. With the July 31 deadline approaching, U.S. officials face pressure to respond if the strait remains effectively closed. No formal statement has been issued, but internal deliberations are underway.
Rising fears of escalation
Analysts and regional observers have warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger oil price spikes and supply chain disruptions. The 98.7% probability on Polymarket reflects a market consensus that diplomatic or military efforts to restore normal traffic will fail in the short term. The question now is what happens after July 31 — and whether any party will make the first move.
