Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, now puts the chance that Vladimir Putin will be out of power by 2027 at 16%. That's up from previous levels, and the shift came after Russia's State Duma moved to fast-track a bill that would restrict exiled anti-war Russians' access to their own money and property.
What the Duma bill does
The proposed legislation targets Russians who have left the country and publicly opposed the war in Ukraine. If it becomes law, those exiles would lose the ability to use online banking, sell or rent out property, and access consular services. The State Duma is scheduled to fast-track the bill in the middle of this week.
The bill still needs President Putin's signature to take effect. But the Duma's push to speed it through suggests the Kremlin is serious about tightening the screws on critics abroad.
Why the odds moved
Polymarket's Putin-exit contract asks whether Putin will no longer be president of Russia by January 1, 2027. The 16% probability is a notable jump, though it still means traders see an 84% chance he stays in power. The timing of the increase — right after the Duma's fast-track announcement — points to a belief among bettors that the crackdown could destabilize Putin's hold.
Some analysts have argued that targeting exiles is a sign of weakness, not strength. By going after people who already left, the Kremlin may be acknowledging that internal dissent is harder to control. But the market's move is modest; 16% is far from a sure thing.
What happens next
The Duma's fast-track vote is expected midweek. After that, the bill goes to Putin's desk. If he signs, the restrictions will take effect quickly. For now, the exiled community — and the traders watching them — are waiting to see whether the president puts his name on the law.
