Betting on Vladimir Putin’s departure from power by 2027 has climbed to 17.5% on the prediction market Polymarket. The shift comes as Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky called for quicker deliveries of air-defense systems after a Russian strike hit more than 100 sites across the country.
Polymarket odds tick up
The contract, which pays out if Putin is no longer president of Russia by June 30, 2027, has seen its probability rise from lower levels in recent weeks. Polymarket users are wagering on a range of political outcomes, and the Putin exit bet is one of the more closely watched. The 17.5% figure implies a roughly one-in-six chance that the Russian leader will leave office — whether by resignation, removal, or other means — before that date.
No single event appears to have driven the increase. The market has been volatile since the start of the war in Ukraine, and odds have fluctuated with battlefield developments and political news. The current level is among the highest since the contract launched.
Zelensky’s urgent appeal
Speaking after a large-scale Russian attack, Zelensky said Moscow is leaning heavily on ballistic missiles to sustain its campaign. “Russia is relying on ballistic missiles,” he said, urging partners to speed up deliveries of air-defense systems. The strike, which targeted over a hundred sites, underscores the strain on Ukraine’s air shield.
Zelensky did not provide a specific number of casualties or damage details, but described the attack as one of the largest in recent weeks. He repeated his call for Western allies to provide more Patriot systems and other interceptors, saying every day of delay costs lives.
The appeal lands as Ukraine’s military faces ammunition shortages and a renewed Russian offensive in the east. Air-defense supplies have been a persistent bottleneck, with Kyiv asking for faster approvals and deliveries from the U.S. and Europe.
What the betting market suggests
Prediction markets like Polymarket are not scientific polls, but they aggregate the views of users who put real money on outcomes. The 17.5% odds for Putin’s exit by 2027 reflect a belief among some bettors that political change in Russia is possible within that timeframe. However, the market remains heavily skewed toward him staying in power, with the implied probability of him remaining at 82.5%.
Other contracts on Polymarket cover topics from U.S. elections to conflicts. The Putin exit bet has drawn attention because it ties directly to the war’s trajectory. A change in Kremlin leadership could alter the course of the conflict, though analysts caution that any successor might pursue similar policies.
The next major milestone for the contract is June 30, 2027. Until then, the odds will shift with each new strike, diplomatic move, or internal Russian development.
