Traders on the prediction market Polymarket are now betting heavily that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady through all of 2026. The odds of zero rate cuts next year hit 85% on Tuesday, a sharp move that reflects growing conviction that inflation won't ease enough to justify looser policy. Separately, a macro roundup circulating in political circles claims Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is set to become the UK's next prime minister, as the debate over North Sea oil policy intensifies.
What the Polymarket odds show
The 85% probability is a significant jump from earlier levels, though the exact timeline of the shift isn't specified in the data. Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, has become a go-to gauge for traders betting on central bank moves. The implied 15% chance of at least one cut in 2026 suggests markets see the Fed staying hawkish even as the economy slows. No official Fed commentary has directly addressed the 2026 outlook, but the odds align with recent statements from some policymakers who have warned against premature easing.
The Burnham claim and North Sea oil
The macro roundup, which aggregates political and economic forecasts, asserts that Burnham is poised to take over as prime minister. It ties the prediction to the intensifying debate over North Sea oil policy, though it offers no specific timeline or policy details. Burnham, a prominent Labour figure, has been vocal about energy transition issues. The claim adds a new layer to the UK's political landscape, where energy policy is becoming a wedge issue ahead of the next general election. Neither Burnham nor his office has commented on the roundup.
For the Fed, the next set of inflation and jobs data will be key. If price pressures persist, the 85% odds could climb higher. On the UK side, the Labour Party's internal dynamics and the government's North Sea licensing decisions will shape whether Burnham's path to No. 10 becomes credible. The macro roundup's source remains unclear, but its circulation suggests the idea is gaining traction in certain policy circles. Whether Burnham can translate regional popularity into a national bid is an open question.
