Prediction market Polymarket is giving a 99% probability that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not be normalized by July 31. The figure reflects traders' bets on the outcome of the ongoing tensions in the region.
Iran's drone attack claim
Separately, Iran's army said it launched a drone attack on US military sites in Jordan. The claim adds to the volatile situation around the strategic waterway, through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes.
The Polymarket contract asks whether Hormuz traffic will be "normal" by the end of July. A "yes" outcome would mean shipping flows are at typical levels. With odds at just 1%, the market is betting heavily against a quick resolution.
What's at stake
The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Any disruption can affect global oil prices and supply chains. The US and its allies have been monitoring the situation closely.
Iran's military claim could not be independently verified. The US has not confirmed any drone attack on its sites in Jordan.
