The prediction market Polymarket is pricing a 99.65% chance that UK Labour leader Keir Starmer will be the next political leader to exit his role. The market for 'next leader out' is trading like a near lock, with no other candidate close.
What the market is pricing
Polymarket's 'next leader out' contract lets users bet on which head of state or party leader will leave their position next. Starmer's odds have climbed to 99.65%, making his departure all but certain in the eyes of traders. The market has been active in recent weeks, though the platform does not disclose the reasons behind the shift.
The near-unanimous probability suggests bettors expect an announcement soon. But Polymarket does not provide commentary on the odds, leaving observers to speculate on the catalyst.
Maine Senate race
Separately, Troy Jackson has locked up the Democratic nomination for the Maine Senate. Jackson, a state senator, effectively secured the nod without a contested primary. His path to the general election is now clear.
Jackson's nomination adds to the list of political developments tracked by prediction markets, though the Maine race is not directly tied to the 'next leader out' contract.
The Polymarket market will resolve when a leader actually steps down. For Jackson, the next step is the general election campaign.
