President Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped to 37 percent, according to a new AP-NORC poll that also found a majority of Americans believe the U.S. went too far in its actions tied to a tentative deal with Iran. The survey, conducted June 11–17 among 3,040 adults, offers a snapshot of public sentiment as the White House navigates a fragile foreign policy win and faces growing economic uncertainty.
The poll's bottom line
The 37 percent approval figure marks a low point for Trump, who has struggled to maintain support even among his base. More than half of respondents — 53 percent — said U.S. actions in the emerging U.S.-Iran agreement went too far, suggesting the deal's terms are unpopular even before any formal signing. The poll's margin of error is roughly 2.5 percentage points.
When the survey was in the field, details of the tentative accord were just surfacing. The White House has promoted the deal as a step toward stability in the Middle East, but the data indicates the public sees it differently.
Why the Iran deal matters
Negotiators have been working on a framework that would curb Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The poll didn't ask about specific provisions, but the broad disapproval signals trouble for the administration's ability to sell the pact at home. With 53 percent saying the U.S. overreached, critics inside Congress may find fresh ammunition to challenge the agreement's scope.
Supporters of the deal argue it prevents a military escalation. But the numbers suggest the White House has a steep hill to climb to build public backing.
Fed rate decision in the background
Separately, financial markets are betting the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its July meeting. Polymarket, a prediction platform, puts the probability of a hold at 77.5 percent. That's a strong signal that traders expect the central bank to wait before cutting rates, even as the economy shows mixed signals.
The Fed has been cautious about easing too quickly, worried about inflation reaccelerating. A hold in July would keep the federal funds rate at its current level, a move that could ripple through mortgage, credit card, and business loan rates. For the White House, a steady Fed means little immediate relief for borrowers — and no easy economic win to distract from the Iran controversy.
The combination of a weak approval rating, a disputed foreign policy initiative, and a patient central bank leaves the administration with few near-term bright spots. The next test comes when the Senate returns from recess and faces pressure to weigh in on the Iran deal's final language.
