President Donald Trump has signed off on a 30-year nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia, a deal that critics say could accelerate the spread of atomic technology in the volatile Middle East. The approval, confirmed by administration officials, grants Riyadh broad access to U.S. nuclear know-how and materials — but without requiring the kingdom to forgo enrichment and reprocessing capabilities.
Why the deal raises alarms
The agreement does not include a so-called “gold standard” provision that would bar Saudi Arabia from enriching uranium or reprocessing spent fuel. Those steps can produce weapons-grade material. Nonproliferation advocates have long warned that any nuclear partnership with the Saudis must close that loophole, given the kingdom’s history of signaling it would seek a bomb if Iran ever develops one.
The 30-year term locks in the arrangement across multiple U.S. administrations, making it harder for future presidents to renegotiate or cancel. That long horizon is itself a source of concern: it ties American policy to a monarchy whose stability and intentions are uncertain.
Iran deal prospects look dim
Meanwhile, the chances of a final nuclear deal between the United States and Iran appear vanishingly small. Prediction market data shows only a 2.9% probability that a comprehensive US-Iran agreement will be reached by August 13, 2026. That date is roughly two years from now, suggesting that negotiators face steep hurdles — or that the administration has shifted its focus to the Saudi pact instead.
The two tracks are not entirely separate. Saudi officials have publicly said they want their own nuclear program to match whatever Iran is allowed. If the Iran deal stays dead, Riyadh’s insistence on enrichment rights becomes harder to resist. And if the Saudi deal goes through without strict limits, it could trigger a regional arms race.
Congress has 90 days to review the Saudi agreement once it is formally submitted. Lawmakers from both parties have already raised objections. Some have threatened to block the deal unless Saudi Arabia makes binding commitments not to enrich or reprocess. The administration has not said when it will send the text to Capitol Hill.
The 30-year timeline means the deal will outlast any single administration, leaving future presidents to manage the consequences.
