President Donald Trump has not spoken to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman since a recent post by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, according to available information. Separately, a prediction market now puts the chance of a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting before August 1 at just 5.5%.
No call with the Crown Prince
The lack of direct communication between Trump and the Saudi leader comes after Leavitt's post, though the content of that post was not disclosed. The White House has not offered further details on the status of the relationship between the two countries. Saudi Arabia has been a key U.S. ally in the Middle East, and Trump maintained close ties with the kingdom during his first term.
Iran meeting odds remain low
A prediction market, which allows users to bet on the likelihood of future events, currently shows a 5.5% probability that a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting will take place by July 31. The figure suggests traders see little chance of a breakthrough in the near term. The Biden administration had pursued indirect talks with Iran, but Trump has taken a different approach since returning to office.
The two facts — the silence with Riyadh and the low odds for Tehran — highlight the uncertain state of U.S. diplomacy in the region. Neither the White House nor the Saudi embassy has commented on the lack of communication between the two leaders.
It remains unclear whether the prediction market's assessment reflects actual policy signals or simply market skepticism. The next few weeks will show whether any diplomatic movement occurs before the July 31 deadline.
