President Donald Trump said during the G7 meeting in France that he could transmit a memorandum of understanding (MOU) regarding Iran to Congress. The MOU was set to take effect the Friday after the summit. Meanwhile, odds of a US invasion of Iran on the prediction market Polymarket ticked up to 12.5%.
What Trump Said at the G7
Speaking at the leaders' gathering in France, Trump mentioned he could pass the Iran MOU to lawmakers. The document outlines terms between the US and Iran, though its exact contents haven't been disclosed. The MOU's effective date is scheduled for this coming Friday, just days after the G7 wraps up.
Polymarket Odds Jump
On the betting platform Polymarket, the probability of a US military invasion of Iran climbed to 12.5% following Trump's remarks. That's a noticeable uptick from previous levels, though still well below 50%. The market aggregates user bets on geopolitical events, and the shift suggests some traders see the MOU move as a potential precursor to escalation — or at least increased tension.
The 12.5% figure is not a prediction but a reflection of where money is being placed. No other details about the MOU's substance or Trump's timeline have emerged from the G7.
The MOU is due to take effect on Friday. Whether Trump actually transmits it to Congress before then — or if that was just a casual remark — remains the open question.
