Gabriel Perez, the man who has run Donald Trump's teleprompter since 2016, allegedly made more than $100,000 betting on the content of the president's speeches before they were delivered. The bets were placed on Kalshi, a prediction market that lets users wager on whether certain words or topics will appear in a public address. Kalshi's surveillance team flagged the pattern and referred the trades to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
How the bets worked
Kalshi operates what it calls 'Mentions' markets. Traders bet on whether a specific word or topic — say, "tariffs" or "election integrity" — will be uttered by a politician during a set speech. Perez, who had access to the president's script in advance, allegedly bet on more than a dozen Trump speeches over a three-month period, including the February State of the Union address. He would exit his positions mid-speech when Trump deviated from the prepared text, locking in profits before the market closed.
According to the CFTC referral, Perez's account showed consistent wins on timing and content that lined up with the speech scripts. The total take: over $100,000.
Kalshi's response and new safeguards
Kalshi enforcement chief Bobby DeNault said the platform is cooperating with regulators. After detecting the unusual activity, Kalshi launched a package of market integrity measures. Those include risk scoring on accounts, employment checks, and automated monitoring. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, Kalshi blocked more than 100 potential insider trades, opened 150-plus investigations, and made over 20 law enforcement referrals.
DeNault described the Perez case as a clear example of the kind of behavior the platform is designed to catch. "We're building the tools to keep markets fair," DeNault said in a statement. "When we see something wrong, we act."
White House warnings and criminal landscape
The White House sent a memo to staff in March warning against betting on inside information. The warning came after the Perez trades had already been flagged. Perez still runs Trump's teleprompter as of the article's date. Manhattan prosecutors declined to bring criminal charges. The CFTC may settle the matter administratively, requiring Perez to return the profits and agree to stop similar trades.
The case is not isolated. A U.S. Army soldier turned $33,000 into roughly $410,000 on Polymarket using classified intelligence about Maduro's movements. That case is also under investigation. Goldman Sachs has limited employee bets on Kalshi and Polymarket, citing compliance concerns.
The CFTC has not announced a timeline for a settlement or hearing. For now, Perez remains on the job, and the prediction markets keep taking bets on what the president will say next.
