President Donald Trump is considering ramping up the US military campaign against Iran, according to a report. The move comes as a prediction market gives a 26% chance that a US-Iran deal with reconstruction funding will be reached in 2026.
What the report says
The report, which did not name specific sources, indicates that Trump is weighing options to increase military pressure on Tehran. No details on the scale or timing of any potential escalation were provided. The White House has not commented publicly on the matter.
Prediction market odds
On prediction platforms, traders see a 26% probability that the US and Iran will strike a deal next year that includes reconstruction funding. That means the market currently views a diplomatic resolution as unlikely but not impossible. The 26% figure suggests significant uncertainty about the path forward.
What's at stake
Any escalation would mark a sharp turn in US policy toward Iran. The administration has previously pursued a mix of sanctions and military posturing. A deal with reconstruction funding could offer Tehran economic relief in exchange for concessions, but the low probability reflects deep skepticism that both sides can agree on terms.
The report did not specify what form escalation might take — whether additional airstrikes, troop deployments, or other actions. It also did not say when a decision might be announced.
The coming weeks will show whether the administration moves toward a harder military line or pursues the diplomatic track that prediction markets see as a long shot.
