Ukraine has started targeting warehouses operated by Russian e-commerce giant Wildberries, a move that signals a broader shift in Kyiv's approach to the war. The strikes hit facilities used to store and distribute goods, cutting into a key logistics artery for the Russian economy. Separately, a prediction market now puts the chance of Russian forces entering the eastern city of Sloviansk by the end of 2026 at 17%.
Why Wildberries became a target
Wildberries is Russia's largest online retailer, handling millions of orders daily. Its warehouses are critical nodes in the country's supply chain, linking manufacturers to consumers across Russia and occupied territories. By striking these sites, Ukraine is aiming to disrupt not just military logistics but the civilian economy that sustains the war effort.
The shift is notable. Earlier in the conflict, Ukraine focused on military depots and fuel storage. Hitting a major e-commerce hub is a departure — one that could force Moscow to divert resources to protect commercial infrastructure. The attacks also send a message to Russian businesses: no facility is off-limits.
Details on the specific strikes remain limited. Ukrainian officials have not claimed responsibility directly, but the pattern of attacks aligns with recent statements from military leaders about expanding the target set. The warehouses are spread across several regions, including areas far from the front lines.
What the 17% figure means
Prediction markets, where users bet on real-world outcomes, have become a rough gauge of battlefield expectations. The current 17% probability for Russian forces entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026, reflects a belief that the city is not an immediate priority. Sloviansk, in Donetsk Oblast, has been under Ukrainian control since 2014 but has faced repeated shelling.
For context, similar markets earlier in the war gave higher odds to Russian advances on Kyiv and Kharkiv — bets that proved wrong. The 17% number suggests traders see a real but limited chance of a breakthrough. It's not a prediction, just a snapshot of collective guesswork.
The figure has ticked up slightly in recent weeks, coinciding with renewed Russian offensives in the east. But it remains far below the odds assigned to other contested towns like Chasiv Yar or Vuhledar.
Connecting the dots
The two developments — the Wildberries strikes and the Sloviansk odds — are not directly linked, but they paint a picture of a war entering a new phase. Ukraine is taking the fight to Russia's economic infrastructure, while the front line remains largely static. The prediction market's low probability for Sloviansk suggests that even if Ukraine's strategy shifts, a major Russian territorial gain is not seen as likely in the near term.
What comes next? The Wildberries attacks may escalate if they prove effective. The company has already announced temporary closures of some warehouses, citing security concerns. On the battlefield, the next few months will test whether Russia can sustain its offensive momentum. The 17% figure will be updated as new intelligence and fighting shape the outlook.
