The US military has wrapped up its 10th consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran, according to official statements. The operation, now in its third week, shows no signs of slowing. Meanwhile, a prediction market tracking the conflict has assigned a 49% probability that full airspace closure over the region will be in effect by August 31.
The 10th Night of Strikes
The latest round of strikes concluded early Tuesday. The Pentagon has not released detailed target lists, but the sustained campaign marks one of the longest continuous aerial operations against Iran in recent years. Each night, military aircraft have struck what officials describe as military infrastructure. The pace has remained steady, with no gaps longer than 24 hours.
The 10th night came after a day of diplomatic silence from Tehran. No formal response has been issued by Iranian authorities. The US military has not indicated when the strikes might end. The operation is being conducted under the authorization of the president, though the exact legal basis has not been publicly detailed.
What the Prediction Market Says
Prediction markets have become a go-to gauge for geopolitical risk among traders and analysts alike. The current market, which allows users to bet on the outcome of the conflict, now shows a 49% likelihood that the airspace over Iran will be completely closed to civilian and military traffic by the end of August. That number has climbed from 32% a week ago.
Airspace closure would mean no flights in or out of Iran, effectively isolating the country. It would also disrupt regional air travel, as many international routes pass over Iranian airspace. The market's probability suggests that investors see a near-even chance of such a dramatic escalation.
If the airspace does close, it would be a major escalation in the conflict. Neighboring countries have already tightened their own airspace controls. The United Nations has not yet commented on the airstrikes or the prediction market data. The US military has not acknowledged the market's figure, but operations continue.
The next few weeks will be telling. The market's 49% probability is not a certainty, but it reflects a real risk that the conflict could widen. Whether the airstrikes will continue into a third week, or whether diplomacy will reemerge, remains unclear. The military has not set a timeline for ending the campaign.
