The United States and Iran are reportedly considering a 10-day ceasefire as negotiations remain stalled. Meanwhile, a prediction market for West Texas Intermediate crude oil shows only a 0.4% probability of prices hitting $130 a barrel in July.
Ceasefire talks stall
Diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran have hit a rough patch in recent weeks. The proposed short-term ceasefire could offer a breathing space for further discussions, though neither side has confirmed the plan. The talks have been ongoing, with key issues unresolved.
What the prediction market says
A prediction market tracking WTI crude oil prices assigns a 0.4% chance to the benchmark reaching $130 in July. That figure indicates traders see a price spike as extremely unlikely in the near term. The market is not pricing in a major supply disruption from the region.
The low probability comes as oil prices have been relatively stable. The potential ceasefire between the US and Iran could affect supply expectations, but the market is not betting on a dramatic move.
The proposed ceasefire remains under discussion. No formal agreement has been announced.
