A US official confirmed Monday that no Iran deal has been signed, despite a flurry of speculation over the weekend. Talks between the two countries are still moving forward, the official said, without giving a timeline. The denial came as prediction markets showed traders sharply raising their bets on an agreement.
The official denial
The White House didn't issue a formal statement. But a US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters that reports of a signed deal were inaccurate. “Talks are ongoing,” the official said. No further details were provided. The denial was brief and blunt: no deal today.
Betting odds tripled in two days
On prediction market platforms, the probability of a signed deal swung wildly over the weekend. On May 24, the odds stood at 6.5%. By May 25 they'd jumped to 17.5%. And by May 26 they hit 25.5% — a near quadruple increase from the start. The spike suggests traders saw signals they interpreted as progress. But Monday's official word poured cold water on that optimism.
What caused the jump? The facts don't say. Maybe a leak, maybe a rumor. The odds themselves tell the story: they're volatile, and they don't always get it right.
The administration hasn't set a deadline. The talks continue. The US official didn't say when the next round might produce a result. For now, the market's betting on a deal — but not today.
