The United States is preparing to escalate military strikes on Iran, with a new focus on the country's economic infrastructure, according to reports. The move marks a significant intensification of the ongoing conflict between the two nations.
What the new strikes would target
Unlike previous strikes that primarily targeted military assets, the planned operations are expected to hit economic targets such as oil refineries, ports, and industrial facilities. The goal appears to be to cripple Iran's ability to fund its military activities and destabilize its economy.
Details remain scarce, but officials have indicated that the strikes could be broader in scope than earlier actions. The shift in strategy suggests a more aggressive posture from the US administration.
Prediction market odds
Prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on geopolitical outcomes, currently show a 0.8% probability of a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by July 31, 2026. The extremely low odds reflect widespread skepticism that the two sides will reach a lasting agreement within that timeframe.
The figure has remained relatively stable despite the escalation, indicating that traders see little chance of a diplomatic breakthrough in the near term. Some analysts (though not quoted) might interpret the low probability as a sign that the conflict is expected to continue or even intensify.
What comes next
The administration has not announced a specific timeline for the new strikes. It is unclear whether the operations will be carried out in a single wave or over a sustained period. The lack of a clear deadline leaves room for diplomatic efforts, but the prediction market suggests those efforts face long odds.
No date has been set for the next round of strikes, and officials have not commented on potential targets beyond the economic focus.
