US strikes ignited a major bridge fire in the Iranian port city of Bandar Khamir. The attack comes as a prediction market puts a 16.9% probability that zero ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31.
Bridge fire in Bandar Khamir
The fire damaged a key bridge in Bandar Khamir, a city on the Persian Gulf coast. The strikes were carried out by US forces. Details on the extent of the damage or casualties have not been released.
Bandar Khamir sits near the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that handles about a fifth of the world's oil supply. Any disruption there can send shockwaves through global energy markets.
Strait of Hormuz at risk
Traders on a prediction market now see a 16.9% chance that no ships will pass through the strait by the end of July. That's a notable shift, though the market still sees a full shutdown as unlikely. The probability reflects growing concern over potential escalation between the US and Iran.
The strait is a chokepoint for oil tankers. Even a temporary closure would spike oil prices and strain supply chains. The bridge fire in Bandar Khamir could be a sign of broader military operations targeting Iranian infrastructure near the waterway.
What comes next
The coming weeks will show whether the bridge fire and any further escalation push that probability higher. The prediction market will update as new events unfold. For now, the 16.9% figure is a marker of how quickly the situation could change.
