Brent crude is expected to average $96 a barrel this year, according to projections, as low global inventories and ongoing Middle East tensions keep supply tight. The forecast comes as a prediction market gives a 15% chance the benchmark will hit a new all-time high by the end of December.
Why the forecast points to $96
Low inventories are a key factor. Stockpiles around the world have been drawn down, leaving less cushion against any supply disruption. At the same time, tensions in the Middle East — a region that pumps about a third of the world's crude — have kept traders on edge. Any escalation could quickly tighten the market further.
The $96 average projection reflects these pressures. It's a level that would mark a significant jump from recent years, though not a record. The all-time high for Brent, set in 2008, remains well above that figure.
A 15% shot at a record
A separate prediction market now puts the odds of Brent crude reaching a new all-time high by December 31 at 15%. That's a non-trivial probability for an event that would require a major supply shock or a rapid demand surge. The market is effectively pricing in a tail risk — a low-probability, high-impact outcome.
Prediction markets aggregate the views of traders and speculators, but they're not forecasts. They reflect what people are willing to bet on. Still, a 15% chance is notable. It suggests that enough participants see a plausible path to a record, even if it's not the base case.
What would it take? A combination of factors: deeper production cuts from OPEC+, a sudden geopolitical crisis, or a faster-than-expected economic rebound that drives demand. None of those are guaranteed, but they're not impossible either.
The year is still young. The December 31 deadline gives plenty of time for events to unfold. For now, the market is watching inventories and the Middle East — the same two forces that are pushing the average toward $96.
