Bitcoin is holding above $80,000 — $80,416 as of press time, up 1.46% in the last hour — but the market mood is far from celebratory. The largest cryptocurrency is still down roughly 37.5% from its all-time high, and analyst Aralez is predicting another leg lower in the weeks ahead.
Aralez calls for $60,000 Bitcoin in May–June
Aralez expects Bitcoin to drop to around $60,000 in the May–June period, a decline of about 25% from current levels. The same forecast sees the S&P 500 falling below $6,800 over the same stretch. Aralez warns that panic is likely to take over the market during these months.
It's a grim near-term outlook, but the analyst isn't calling for a permanent rout. The prediction calls for a cycle bottom in Q3 2026, when distrust in crypto is expected to peak. That's also when Aralez sees accumulation beginning.
Why the Fed's next move matters
A key piece of the puzzle is the Federal Reserve. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to signal an early rate cut in Q3 2026. Lower rates tend to boost risk assets, but the timing is everything — if the cut comes as panic peaks, it could mark the turning point.
Aralez projects that formal rate cuts will begin in Q4 2026. That lines up with the forecast for Bitcoin to break above $85,000 in the fourth quarter, starting a new cycle. The S&P 500 is expected to stabilize around 6,000 by then.
What comes next
For now, the path looks rocky. Aralez's scenario calls for a few more weeks of pain before a Q3 bottom. If the pattern holds, the accumulation phase will run through the summer while the market waits for the Fed to act. The first concrete signal to watch for will be Warsh's public comments on rate cuts — that's when sentiment could begin to shift.
