Bitcoin wrapped up May with a monthly close that left traders uneasy. The largest cryptocurrency ended the month at a level that, while not catastrophic, has done little to reassure analysts watching a series of bearish signals. The price finished near the bottom of its April range, and weekend trading over the final days of the month was notably thin. Volume across major spot exchanges tapered off, suggesting buyers were unwilling to step in aggressively.
Why PlanB sees more pain ahead
Quant analyst PlanB, known for his stock-to-flow model, says he sees a better-than-even chance Bitcoin hasn't found its cycle bottom. His reading of the percentage of supply in profit — a metric that hasn't fallen to levels typical of past bear markets — suggests there's room for further decline. PlanB puts the probability of a drop below the 200-week moving average, currently near $61,000, at over 50%. That level has historically acted as a reliable floor during past corrections. Below that, the realized price around $53,000 could come into play as the next major support. "The market is 50/50 on whether the February low near $60,000 is the bottom," PlanB states, adding that he leans toward more downside. His assessment implies that even if Bitcoin avoids a crash, a grinding move lower remains the base case. For the bulls, that means patience may not be rewarded anytime soon.
Ted Pillow's $70,000 red line
Trader Ted Pillow is watching a different threshold closer to the current price. He flagged that a daily close below $70,000 could trigger a fresh wave of selling and shake confidence among short-term holders. For now, Bitcoin is trading above that mark, but the risk is that a single bad session — perhaps triggered by macro news or a liquidation cascade — could accelerate losses. Pillow's warning adds a tactical layer to the broader structural concerns PlanB raised. It means every daily close in the coming days will be scrutinized for signs of breakdown.
The open interest hole that won't fill
Derivatives markets are still nursing wounds from October 2025. That month's violent shakeout wiped out roughly 71,000 BTC — worth about $11 billion at the time — from Bitcoin's open interest. Total open interest has never fully recovered; the gap stands at more than 24,000 BTC. The missing liquidity suggests leverage hasn't returned to pre-shakeout levels, which could limit upside momentum even if spot demand picks up. For the bulls hoping for a swift reversal, the derivatives data offers a sobering check: the fuel for a rally is simply not there yet. Without a rebuild of open interest, any bounce is likely to be shallow.
No major catalyst is on the immediate horizon. The market is waiting to see whether Bitcoin can hold above the key support zones PlanB and Pillow have identified — or whether a break lower becomes the story of June. For now, all eyes are on the daily close: a slip below $70,000 could set off a cascade toward the 200-week moving average.
