Bitcoin touched the $74,000 zone on May 29, its first visit to that level since the recent sell-off, but the relief was short-lived. The move came as President Donald Trump said he would make a 'final determination' on an Iran deal that would require the Strait of Hormuz to reopen for unrestricted traffic — a statement Iran immediately pushed back on. At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost more than $2 billion over the past two weeks, with BlackRock's IBIT alone shedding $527.84 million on May 28, its second-largest daily outflow since launch.
The Geopolitical Trigger
Trump's claim that an Iran deal is close enough for a final call sent crude markets reeling — analysts lifted 2026 Brent forecasts to $90.44 a barrel for the third straight month. But the Strait of Hormuz isn't just about oil. Roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids moved through the chokepoint in 2024, and the IEA said about 25% of seaborne oil trade transited there last year. Middle East crude exports have collapsed from 18.3 million barrels per day before the crisis to roughly 8.8 million bpd since March 2025. For crypto traders, that kind of geopolitical fog often triggers risk-off positioning, and Bitcoin's recovery to $74,000 was tentative at best — the asset traded between $72,490 and $74,213 on the day, with resistance stacked at $74,200–$75,000 and support at $72,500 and $71,000.
ETF Outflows Accelerate
While the Iran news grabbed headlines, the real pressure on Bitcoin came from institutional exits. The 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of $733.4 million on May 27 and another $223.3 million on May 28. Over the two weeks leading up to May 29, the group has hemorrhaged more than $2 billion. BlackRock's IBIT, the largest fund, took a $527.84 million hit on May 28 — its second-worst day since launch. The selling isn't panic-driven, but it's persistent. Weekend volume has already shrunk to an all-time low share of 16%, down from 28% in 2019, meaning Monday and Tuesday ETF flows now carry outsized weight in price direction.
Options Expiry Adds Pressure
Roughly $6.25 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Deribit on May 29, with $75,000 as the max pain level — the price where the most contracts expire worthless. Bitcoin sat well below that threshold, so the expiry itself didn't trigger a squeeze, but it did cap any upside momentum. The combination of a geopolitical overhang, heavy ETF selling, and a large options expiration created a low-volatility trap: any breakout above $75,000 would need a catalyst that isn't here yet.
Weekend Liquidity Risks
With U.S. spot ETF launches, weekend liquidity has deteriorated sharply. Kaiko data shows cross-exchange price dispersion spiked above 18 basis points during weekend thin order books, compared to below 5 bps on weekdays. Bitcoin dropped over 6% on a Saturday earlier this month during a liquidation wave blamed entirely on shallow weekend depth. If the next few days bring another round of bad news — or a surprise escalation in the Iran talks — the lack of weekend buyers could turn a small dip into a sharper one.
For now, Bitcoin is holding above $72,500 support, but the clock is ticking. The Strait of Hormuz story isn't resolved, and ETF flows show no sign of reversing. The next concrete test comes when the White House either confirms a deal or walks away — and whether that happens on a weekday or a weekend will matter more than usual.
