Bitcoin lost the $80,000 level this week and is now changing hands around $77,000. The latest attempt to reclaim ground stalled below the $78,000–$80,000 resistance zone, and volume dried up during the rebound — a sign that spot demand isn't there yet.
Why $80,000 matters
The Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis sits right above current price, acting as resistance. That's a behavioral threshold: when holders get back to breakeven, they tend to sell. Bitcoin touched that area but couldn't hold it. Now the focus shifts lower. The ETF cost basis is the next important support underneath. If that breaks, the trend flips negative.
Demand zone holds — for now
Buyers did step in earlier this month to defend the $64,000–$68,000 demand zone. That range has held, but the bounce lacked conviction. Bitcoin is now trading below its weekly 100 moving average and above the weekly 200 moving average — a setup that's structurally bullish on higher timeframes but vulnerable in the near term.
Volume tells a story
Volume declined during the latest recovery attempt. That's a classic sign of weak spot demand. Without a fresh wave of buying, the rally couldn't sustain itself. Analysts like Rei Researcher, who used CryptoQuant's Holder Metrics chart to track these levels, have been watching the cost-basis interaction closely.
What comes next
Bitcoin topped above $110,000 late last year and has been in a corrective phase since. The medium-term picture is showing weakness, but the longer-term structure hasn't broken yet. The next concrete levels to watch are the ETF cost basis support and the $64,000–$68,000 floor. If neither holds, the bear case gets a lot heavier.
