Bitcoin briefly pushed above $65,000 on Thursday before slipping back, trading at $64,720 at the time of writing. The move came as fresh U.S. inflation data showed the consumer price index fell 0.4% month-over-month in June, bringing annual inflation to 3.5% — the steepest monthly decline since April 2020. The producer price index also missed expectations, rising 5.5% year-over-year versus the consensus 6.2% forecast.
Rate hike odds crater
The probability of a July rate hike dropped to 10.2% from 24.6% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch data. That's a big swing in just seven days, and it's the kind of macro tailwind that typically supports risk assets. Still, Bitcoin couldn't hold the $65K level, suggesting the market is more focused on internal supply dynamics than macro tailwinds right now.
On-chain data shows selling fatigue
Glassnode flagged heavy selling pressure from two groups: long-term holders cutting losses and short-term holders banking gains. But there are signs the worst might be over. The Relative Long/Short-Term Holder Realized Profit and Loss metric shows the LTH share of selling has stopped growing — the supply meeting rallies is no longer expanding. Long-term holders are now selling at a loss, and profit-taking flow has dried up almost completely. The Entity-Adjusted Long-Term Holder Realized Loss peaked two weeks ago and has declined, indicating selling is easing. Meanwhile, the Accumulation Trend Score shows broad buying at the June lows across both small and large wallets.
ETF inflows bounce back
U.S.-spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $181 million on July 14 and another $108 million on July 15. That's two straight days of solid inflows after a sluggish stretch. Institutional demand via the ETF channel is back, at least for now.
The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis sits near $69,000, and that's the next overhead resistance. A clean reclaim of that level would give the recovery room to run. Bitcoin was down 0.13% in the past 24 hours at the time of reporting — essentially flat. The market is waiting for a catalyst to decide whether the next leg is up or down.
