Bitcoin's price has once again come up against the bear market trendline that has capped every rally since the all-time high in October 2025. The 4-hour chart shows price right on the line, but it hasn't broken through yet. This is the same trendline that rejected a breakout attempt in early May, sending BTC tumbling to a $60,000 bottom.
Trendline test repeats May's pattern?
The last time Bitcoin touched this trendline was about three months ago. That touch led to a failed breakout and a sharp collapse. Now, price is back at the same level. The top of the descending channel and the $64,360 horizontal level could provide support to push price through. If the trendline breaks to the upside, momentum might carry BTC to the $65,600 resistance zone. That would put price near the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, completing the right shoulder.
Momentum and RSI signals
Shorter-term price momentum is starting to top out. A rejection here, followed by a period of sideways or downward movement, may be needed to reset momentum before another upside push. The RSI indicator line has arrived back at the bottom of a rising wedge it fell out of previously. That could be either a confirmation of a breakdown or a re-entry point — the market hasn't decided yet. Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI indicator lines are separated, meaning the chances of a cross-down have slightly diminished.
What's at stake this week
The weekly chart shows a faint trendline that held until midway through the second bear flag; price tested it at the $60K bottom. The main trendline is drawn across the top of the second bear flag and the end of the big bear market rally. This week and next will likely supply the main macro direction for price. If Bitcoin fails to break through again, the bears remain in control. If it finally pushes above, the structure could shift. Either way, the next few days are critical.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
