Bitcoin is still trading in a death cross, the technical pattern where the short-term moving average slides below the long-term one. That signal has been in place for a while now, and it's not going away. The latest catalyst keeping the pressure on? A softer jobs report that's changing how traders think about interest rates.
Jobs data moves the rate calculus
The fresh employment figures came in weaker than expected. That's pulled down the odds of further rate hikes, according to the report. On the surface, that might sound like good news for risk assets — less tightening from the Fed. But the reason the odds are falling is that the economy is showing cracks, and that's a different kind of problem.
Fragility is the real story
The combination of soft jobs numbers and reduced rate-hike expectations points to economic fragility. When the labor market stumbles, it ripples through everything. Bitcoin, as a risk asset, doesn't get a pass. It's been trading in that death cross for weeks, and the macro backdrop isn't giving it much room to break out.
The death cross is a lagging indicator, but it still carries weight for traders who watch moving averages. With the Fed's next move now looking less like a hike and more like a hold — or even a cut — the question is whether that's enough to turn sentiment. So far, it hasn't been. Bitcoin remains stuck, and the broader risk-off tone is doing the heavy lifting.
The next monthly jobs report will be the next real test for the Fed's path and for Bitcoin's technical picture.
