Galaxy Research published a note this week declaring "we believe the bottom is in" for Bitcoin. The call comes from Alex Thorn, the firm's research head, who argues that Bitcoin's recovery of its 50-week moving average — after more than 20 weeks trading below it — has never been followed by a new low. Bitcoin was trading around $81,000 at the time of the discussion, holding up despite broader jitters tied to AI-related market fears.
The 50-week signal
Thorn's case rests on a single technical marker: the 50-week moving average. Bitcoin spent more than 20 weeks beneath that line before climbing back above it, and Thorn says the historical pattern after such reclaims is unambiguous — no subsequent new low has followed. He's not hedging much. The note's language is blunt.
It's a contrarian read given how the market has felt. Bitcoin's resilience around the $80,000 level through the AI-driven selloff is the other half of the argument. Thorn frames the price action itself as evidence that sellers have been exhausted.
Who's actually buying
The positioning data backs up the contrarian case, at least on Thorn's reading. He describes market positioning as "light" and says "the crowd is not here" — the kind of setup that tends to be bullish when it turns. More concretely, 13F filings show a split: hedge funds have been reducing exposure, while sovereign wealth funds and wealth managers have been adding to Bitcoin allocations.
That divergence is the interesting part. The fast money is stepping back. The slower, larger pools of capital are stepping in. Whether that's a rotation or just different time horizons, the filings don't say — but Thorn treats the sovereign wealth fund and wealth manager buying as the more meaningful signal.
Digital gold and the debasement trade
Thorn's longer-term framing leans on the AI build-out itself. He argues the massive capital spending on AI infrastructure functions as a "debasement machine" — a driver of fiscal and monetary expansion that ultimately strengthens the case for Bitcoin as digital gold. With U.S. debt and fiscal dominance concerns in the background, that's the macro leg of the thesis.
It's a familiar argument dressed in new clothes. The AI boom has become the latest channel through which the debasement trade gets expressed, and Thorn is positioning Bitcoin as the beneficiary rather than the casualty of the spending wave.
What's left to confirm
The bottom call is a research note, not a guarantee, and the technical trigger Thorn cites is backward-looking by nature. What the market needs to see next is whether the $80,000 zone holds on a closing basis if AI-related selling resumes, and whether the sovereign wealth fund and wealth manager buying visible in 13F filings carries into the next reporting cycle. Neither answer is in yet.
